外刊吃瓜 |《Demography》最新目錄與摘要

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社會學(xué)國際頂刊

Demography

（《人口學(xué)》）

的最新目錄與摘要

About Demography

Demography is the flagship journal of the Population Association of America. Since its founding in 1964, the population research journal Demography has mirrored the vitality, diversity, high intellectual standard, and wide impact of the field on which it reports.

Demography presents the highest-quality original research of scholars in a broad range of disciplines that includes anthropology, biology, economics, geography, history, psychology, public health, sociology, and statistics. The journal encompasses a wide variety of methodological approaches to population research. Its geographic focus is global, with articles addressing demographic matters from around the planet. Its temporal scope is broad, as represented by research that explores demographic phenomena from past to present and reaching toward the future.

Journal Metric

Demography的CiteScore（期刊近兩年發(fā)表文獻在當(dāng)前年度的平均被引用次數(shù)）為6.00，具有較高的學(xué)術(shù)影響力。該刊所屬的學(xué)科大類為“Social Sciences（社會科學(xué)）”，小類為“Demography（人口學(xué)）”。在小類分區(qū)中屬于Q1（一區(qū)，通常是學(xué)科內(nèi)排名前25%的期刊），在該小類的140種期刊里排名第11。這反映該刊在人口學(xué)領(lǐng)域具有較高的專業(yè)水準和學(xué)術(shù)認可度。

Current Issue

Demography 為雙月刊，最新一期（Volume 63, Issue 2, April 2026）的內(nèi)容，分為“Research Notes”“Articles”兩個部分，共計16篇文章，詳情如下。

Contents

Research Notes

Volume 63(2), 2026

Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in Japan: A Research Note on a Quasi-Experimental Approach Utilizing Zodiac Superstition as an Exogenous Shock

Rong Fu; Senhu Wang; Yichen Shen; Haruko Noguchi

Despite extensive research on education's relationship with family formation, causal evidence remains limited, particularly for postsecondary education in East Asia. This research note provides novel causal evidence on education's effects on marriage and fertility among Japanese women by exploiting a unique quasi-experimental design based on the 1966 “Firehorse” zodiac superstition. We leverage the mismatch between Japanese school year and calendar year to identify women who benefited from reduced educational competition without being directly affected by the superstition. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive data on approximately 1.8 million women from multiple administrative sources, we examine the effect of increased educational opportunities across all education levels. Our findings reveal that higher education leads to modest delays in marriage and childbearing—effects that are smaller than previously documented—without increasing lifelong singlehood. Women with more education show higher labor force participation at marriage and marry slightly younger spouses while maintaining traditional marriage practices. These results suggest that education's direct effect on family formation is moderate and that institutional factors beyond education may deserve greater attention in understanding demographic trends in East Asia. Our findings contribute to debates about effective family policies in rapidly aging societies facing declining marriage and fertility rates.

170 Years of Change in Living Arrangements in the United States Using Expected Years of Life: A Research Note

Ginevra Floridi; Albert Esteve

Over the past 170 years, the United States has undergone demographic, structural, and cultural changes that are reflected in—and a reflection of—changes in living arrangements. In this research note, we link living arrangements and life expectancy to calculate expected life years spent across different living arrangements by sex for the U.S. population for the period 1850–2021. We decompose changes in this measure by age group and describe change across cohorts. We use harmonized data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples, classifying living arrangements into alone, with primary kin only (partners, parents, and children), and in extended households; more detailed subcategories include, for example, single-parent households and extended families. Three historical ages of U.S. living arrangements emerge: a “l(fā)arge household” system (1850–1940) characterized by relative stability in the extended household, when primary kin arrangements incorporate the majority of the substantial gains in life expectancy; an era of “primary kin” dominance (1940–1980) when life years spent only with primary kin increase faster than life expectancy, while the prevalence of extended households declines; and a “diversified” phase (1980–onward) characterized by a decline in two-parent households in favor of greater diversity, including living alone and with extended family.

Ryder's Lost Legacy? A Research Note on Cohort Analysis in?Social Research

Ethan Fosse

Norman Ryder's (1965) seminal essay on cohort analysis has inspired generations of demographers and sociologists to investigate social change by identifying unique “effects” of age, period, and cohort (APC) on various outcomes. However, despite advances in technical sophistication, APC analysis remains highly controversial, exacerbated by the lack of clear guidance in Ryder's work on conducting a cohort analysis. This research note draws on unpublished archival materials to elucidate the key components of Ryder's cohort approach, revealing his main steps for analyzing APC data. Importantly, Ryder rejected conventional APC analysis as it has developed in the literature. Instead of extracting distinct APC “effects,” he aimed to differentiate intracohort from intercohort trends, which together form Ryderian comparative cohort careers. Unlike traditional APC analysis, Ryder's approach is explicitly cohort-based, diachronic, and purely descriptive, requiring no additional information external to the data. Consequently, a Ryderian cohort analysis can help reconcile seemingly divergent findings and establish a foundation for consensus across multiple domains. To facilitate methodological and theoretical development, this note outlines the primary steps for conducting a cohort analysis from a Ryderian perspective and concludes with practical recommendations for further research.

Accounting for Race Response Change in Population Projections: A Research Note

Carolyn A. Liebler

Demographers have struggled to make realistic population projections for some race groups. For example, the Census Bureau's 2023 national projection gives the unrealistically low estimate that the American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) population will be 8.7 million in 2050 (it was measured at 9.7 million in 2020). I argue that this disconnect occurs because the cohort component model ignores an important component of change: race response change (whether due to complex identities or administrative processes). This research note introduces a strategy for incorporating net race response change into cohort component model projections. I apply the strategy to the racially identified AIAN population in the United States from 2020 to 2050, concluding that it may grow from 9.7 million in 2020 to 19.8 million in 2050.

Articles

Volume 63(2), 2026

Ending Birthright Citizenship Would Have Disparate Impacts on U.S.-born Children of Asian and Latino Immigrants

Jennifer Van Hook; A. Nicole Kreisberg

In January 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order that would redefine the citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment by discontinuing birthright citizenship for future children born to certain noncitizen parents. Prior research estimates that ending birthright citizenship would increase the “unauthorized,” or otherwise precarious noncitizen, population by 2.5 million in one decade. We show that the largest absolute impact of ending birthright citizenship would affect Latinos, who would compose nearly 80% of “unauthorized” births in the short term and more than 90% of U.S.-born “unauthorized” people by 2050, expanding the projected size of the Latino unauthorized population by nearly 30%. This projected increase is attributable to the fact that Latinos currently make up the largest share of unauthorized immigrants. After accounting for population size, however, we show that the Asian population would experience the largest relative impact of ending birthright citizenship, especially in the near future. Specifically, we project 41 “unauthorized” births per 1,000 unauthorized Asians, compared with 17 “unauthorized” births per 1,000 among Latinos. This disparate relative impact on Asians stems from their much larger share of temporary nonimmigrant visa holders, whose U.S.-born children would be newly classified as “unauthorized” under the executive order. These disparate absolute and relative impacts on millions of children and their families deserve a fuller understanding of the associated societal implications.

Can Incorporating Parity Information Improve the Reliability of Completed Cohort Fertility Projections? Insights From a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model Approach

YJoanne Ellison; Jakub Bijak; Erengul Dodd

Fertility projections inform population projections and are used to plan for the future provision of vital services such as maternity care and schooling. Existing fertility forecasting models tend to use aggregate births data indexed by age and time alone, thereby neglecting to include information about parity, that is, the number of previous live-born children. This omission risks ignoring a crucial mechanism of fertility dynamics. We propose a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model to complete cohort fertility, within a generalized additive model framework. The use of such models enables a smooth age?cohort rate surface to be estimated for each parity simultaneously. We constrain our model using aggregate data and additionally introduce random walk priors on completed family size and parity progression ratios, which are summary fertility measures known to change relatively slowly over time. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods and data from the Human Fertility Database, we fit our model to 16 countries. We compare our forecasts with the best-performing existing models to quantify the impact of including the parity dimension on predictive accuracy. Our findings indicate that a parity-specific approach could lead to more plausible and reliable fertility projections, aiding government planners in their decision-making and enabling more tailored policy solutions.

Impaired Cognitive and Behavioral Functioning in Childhood and Economic Outcomes in Adulthood

Hope Corman; Kelly Noonan; Nancy E. Reichman

Developmental disabilities are prevalent among U.S. children, child disability rates have been increasing, and the increases have been driven by cognitive and behavioral disorders. This study estimates the effects of low cognitive test scores and high behavior problem scores in childhood on educational attainment, employment, wages, and access to transportation and credit in adulthood. We assess cognitive and behavior scores at multiple time points during childhood and estimate cross-household and household fixed-effects models. We find that individuals with low cognitive scores in childhood are 10% less likely to graduate from high school, 23% less likely to be employed, 31% less likely to own a motor vehicle, and 18% less likely to have a credit card, and they have 51% lower earnings compared with individuals with higher cognitive scores. We also find that individuals with high behavior problem scores in childhood are 7% less likely to graduate from high school, 11% less likely to be employed, and 13% less likely to own a motor vehicle, and they have 14% lower earnings compared with those with lower behavior problem scores. The findings have important implications for well-being over the life course for a nontrivial share of the U.S. population as well as their families and communities.

Varieties of Capitalism and Cross-national Variation in Fertility Rates

Masoud Movahed; Emilio A. Parrado

The institutional approach to explaining cross-national variation in demographic outcomes has gained increasing visibility in both academic research and public policy discourse. In this vein, much of the literature has focused on the effects of welfare programs on risk management and the associated costs of fertility. However, an alternative, more comprehensive perspective, namely, the “varieties of capitalism,” emphasizes the role of broader social-structural and institutional characteristics of national economies in generating socioeconomic outcomes. This perspective has not been extended to debates around cross-national differences in demographic outcomes. We fill this void by elaborating on a varieties of capitalism account of cross-national and longitudinal variation in fertility rates. Drawing on panel data spanning more than three decades (1985?2019) across 21 countries in the Global North, we investigate how institutional factors, through the lens of the varieties of capitalism perspective, correlate with differences in total fertility rates between countries and over time. Our results demonstrate that crucial institutional dimensions, such as centralization of wage bargaining, the employment protection index, and active labor market policies, are associated with variation in total fertility rates across countries and over time.

Nature's Curriculum: Genes Linked to Educational Attainment and Adult Socioeconomic Status Across Birth Cohorts in a Nordic Welfare State

Henrik Dobewall;Maria Vaalavuo;Petri B?ckerman;Jutta Viinikainen;Outi Sirni?;Katri Kantoj?rvi;Jaakko Pehkonen;Olli Raitakari;Terho Lehtim?ki

Recent research has identified genes linked to educational attainment, but their effects on subsequent socioeconomic outcomes, particularly in egalitarian Nordic welfare states, remain largely unexplored. We analyze two genetically informed Finnish datasets, encompassing longitudinal register information on earnings, employment, unemployment, occupational status, and social assistance receipt (n?=?31,622). We examine the role of a polygenic score for educational attainment (EA PGS), achieved level of education, and family socioeconomic background in predicting these outcomes in adulthood. We further study cohort differences around Finland's comprehensive school reform of the 1970s that aimed to promote equality of opportunity. Our results show that in the post-reform generation, EA PGS did not significantly predict adulthood outcomes after controlling for the achieved level of education. A notable exception was for occupational status. In contrast, in the pre-reform generation, EA PGS predicted later socioeconomic outcomes beyond education, indicating relationships not fully explained by schooling. Parental income did not moderate the effect of the EA PGS. Our findings shed additional light on the mechanisms connecting genetic factors and life chances, demonstrating that institutional setting and schooling can shape the influence of genetic endowment for high educational attainment in adult socioeconomic status.

Infant Mortality Expectation and Fertility Behavior in Rural Malawi

Adeline Delavande; Hans-Peter Kohler; Ali Vergili

For decades, population research has been interested in the complex relationship between child mortality and fertility, with a key focus on identifying hoarding behavior (i.e., fertility response to expected aggregate child mortality). Using unique data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health, we investigate the impact of individual-specific subjective expectations about infant mortality on fertility behavior. We instrument the potentially endogenous infant mortality expectations with the average of parents’ ratings of children's health to address the potential for omitted variable bias, such as parental preference for health. Consistent with the hoarding mechanism, we find that a 10-percentage-point increase in community-level child mortality expectations leads to a 14-percentage-point increase in the propensity to have a child in the next two years from a baseline propensity of 39%.

Has Generational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans

Kevin Corinth; Jeff Larrimore

Whether each generation of Americans continues to economically surpass the previous one has recently been called into question. We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36–40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that of the previous generation, a slowdown from the growth rate of the Silent Generation (36%) and Baby Boomers (26%), but similar to that of Generation X (16%). The slowdown for younger generations largely resulted from stalled growth in work hours among women. Progress for Millennials younger than 30 has also remained robust, though largely due to greater reliance on their parents. Additionally, lifetime income gains for younger generations far outweigh their higher educational costs.

Estimates of Under-Five Mortality From a Mobile Phone Survey During the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Observational Study Comparing Three Instruments in Malawi

Julio Romero-Prieto; Boniface Dulani; Bruno Masquelier; Malebogo Tlhajoane; Stéphane Helleringer; Jethro Banda; Georges Reniers

Under-five mortality estimates for low- and middle-income countries are primarily derived from detailed birth or pregnancy histories collected through in-person household surveys. Such surveys are, however, resource intensive and vulnerable to interruption during epidemic outbreaks and other crises. Remotely deployed mobile phone surveys can circumvent these disadvantages, but their suitability for measuring population-level mortality has not been demonstrated. In this contribution, we examine Malawian mobile phone survey data from the Summary Birth Histories, Truncated Pregnancy Histories, and Full Pregnancy Histories instruments for estimating under-five mortality. Considering the limited penetration and the unequal distribution of mobile phones in Malawi, quota sampling was used to ensure representation of population subgroups where mobile phone ownership is low, and poststratification methods were applied to further attenuate selection bias. Resulting probabilities of dying, or q(x)—before 28 days, 12 months, and 60 months of life—are compared against external estimates from a recent Demographic and Health Survey, a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, and model-based estimates from the UN Inter-agency Group of Child Mortality Estimation. Mobile phone survey estimates using the Summary Birth Histories capture the historical trends of q(12m) and q(60m) up to 2018, but they are less reliable for the most recent years. Compared with external sources, estimates from the Truncated Pregnancy Histories appear to be biased downward. Estimates of q(28d)?, q(12m)?, and q(60m) from the Full Pregnancy Histories are in line with those published by the UN Inter-agency Group, but they are also suggestive of a mortality excess during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020?2022. We conclude that mobile phone surveys are a promising method for collecting under-five mortality data, and particularly so via the Full Pregnancy Histories instrument.

Blurring the Marriage Market? Contemporary Patterns of?Multiracial Marriage

Aaron Gullickson; Jenifer Bratter

Research on interracial marriage has only begun to incorporate the growing mixed-race population. Using the 2010–2019 pooled American Community Survey, we explore the likelihood of a range of spousal pairings relative to racial endogamy for multiracial people while accounting for group size and controls for education, age, and immigration status. A distinguishing feature of marriage for multiracial individuals is the possibility of a partial overlap in racial identification—having one component race in common with one's partner. We find that exact racial endogamy for many multiracial individuals is relatively quite high, once we adjust for group size, and that partial endogamy through overlap increases the likelihood of a union. Furthermore, partial overlap in racial identification between multiracial and monoracial partners reveals the importance of racial classification regimes determining how multiracial individuals are treated in the marriage market. We find no evidence of a general affinity among multiracial individuals who do not share racial ancestry or that multiracial individuals’ partner choices are less affected by race than the choices of monoracial individuals. These patterns have implications for the significance of established racial boundaries and the ongoing churning of racial categories, even as those categories become more ancestrally complex.

Net Worth Poverty in Childhood: Duration, Timing, and Educational Outcomes

Christina Gibson-Davis; Lisa A. Keister; Lisa Gennetian; Shuyi Qiu

Net worth poverty (NWP) is the modal form of poverty for American children, but how it is experienced across childhood and its associations with human capital accumulation are unknown. Using data from the 1999?2021 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a cohort of children followed from birth to age 20, this study measures NWP exposure and duration across the child's life course and relates NWP exposure and duration to high school graduation and college attendance. NWP refers to households whose wealth is less than one fourth of the federal poverty line. Findings show that through age 18, children experienced more frequent and enduring spells of net worth poverty than income poverty. NWP was negatively associated with high school graduation and college attendance independent of the effects of income poverty. Effects were larger for college attendance than for high school graduation, perhaps reflecting the resource-intensive nature of college. The negative effects of NWP were most pronounced for the 31% of the sample that experienced NWP in most waves. The timing of NWP relative to developmental stage did not seem to matter, as children were at risk regardless of the age at which they experienced it.

Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States

Kristen Lagasse Burke

Prevailing theories of family change and the relevance of marriage in the United States hinge on the steady rise in births to unmarried women that unfolded during the latter half of the twentieth century and into the 2000s. This increase was concentrated among individuals with lower education levels, raising concern about inequality in children's family circumstances. Despite theoretical expectations that this trend would continue, the proportion of births to unmarried women plateaued during the 2010s. By examining trends in union formation and childbearing patterns by union status using data from the 2006?2023 American Community Survey, this study investigates the ongoing link between marriage and childbearing underlying this plateau. Birth and marriage rates fell throughout the 2010s. However, in a reversal, married women became increasingly likely to have children relative to their unmarried peers, particularly among those with a high school education or less. These findings challenge theories about the changing social meaning of marriage, suggesting that norms regarding marriage remain robust rather than becoming deinstitutionalized. Furthermore, this study highlights how the declining marriage rate has contributed to the ongoing decline in the birth rate in the United States, implying that barriers to marriage may also create barriers to childbearing.

Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration

Nathan G. Welch; Hana ?ev?íková; Adrian E. Raftery

Existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate and forecast international net migration rates for the 200 most populous countries, taking account of changes in population age structure. We use age-standardized estimates of country-level net migration rates and in-migration (i.e., immigration) rates over five-year periods from 1990 through 2020 to decompose past net migration rates into in-migration rates and out-migration (i.e., emigration) rates. We then recalculate historic migration rates on a scale that removes the influence of the population age distribution. This is done by scaling past and projected migration rates in terms of a reference population and period using a quantity we call the migration age structure index (MASI). We use a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate joint probabilistic forecasts of net migration rates over five-year periods for all countries through 2100. We find that accounting for population age structure in historic and forecast net migration rates leads to narrower prediction intervals by the end of the century for most countries. Furthermore, accounting for population age structure leads to less out-migration among countries with rapidly aging populations that are forecast to contract most rapidly by the end of the century. This approach leads to less drastic population declines than are forecast without accounting for population age structure.

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《中國社會學(xué)學(xué)刊》(The Journal of Chinese Sociology)于2014年10月由中國社會科學(xué)院社會學(xué)研究所創(chuàng)辦。作為中國大陸第一本英文社會學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)期刊，JCS致力于為中國社會學(xué)者與國外同行的學(xué)術(shù)交流和合作打造國際一流的學(xué)術(shù)平臺。JCS由全球最大科技期刊出版集團施普林格·自然(Springer Nature)出版發(fā)行，由國內(nèi)外頂尖社會學(xué)家組成強大編委會隊伍，采用雙向匿名評審方式和“開放獲取”(open access)出版模式。JCS已于2021年5月被ESCI收錄。2022年，JCS的CiteScore分值為2.0（Q2），在社科類別的262種期刊中排名第94位，位列同類期刊前36%。2025年JCS最新影響因子1.3，位列社會學(xué)領(lǐng)域期刊全球前53%（Q3）。

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